Lifetime Odds of Developing Heart Disease Calculated - Among Adults Over 40, Half of Men and One Third of Women At Risk

(6/21/99 HeartInfo) - While the statistic that one in eight women will develop breast cancer during their lifetime is well-known, medical researchers have been unable to offer statistics on heart disease until recently. The risk of developing heart disease for those age 40 and older is one in two for men and one in three for women in the United States, Dr. Donald M. Lloyd-Jones of the Framingham Heart Study and colleagues report in the January 9 Lancet. Heart disease is the leading cause of death for adults worldwide, researchers note.

A 50-year-old woman is three times more likely to develop heart disease than breast cancer in her lifetime, researchers estimate. While she has a 31 percent risk of heart disease, she has an 11 percent chance of getting breast cancer.

Researchers examined data collected on 7,733 participants in the renowned Framingham Heart Study, one of the oldest epidemiological studies in the world. Participants were between ages of 40 and 94 and free of heart disease. After many years of follow-up study, the researchers determined how many participants developed angina pectoris, unstable angina pectoris, suffered a heart attack, or died from coronary heart disease.

Most participants in the study were white. For this reason, researchers warn that the findings might not apply to non-whites. The odds of getting heart disease are lower at age 70 than at age 40 because older people have a shorter life expectancy and the impact of non-cardiovascular causes of disease increases greatly in the elderly. Also, those who are predisposed to heart disease have developed it at an earlier age. At age 70, one in three men will develop heart disease, as will one in four women.

The new statistics might help public health experts publicize the dangers of heart disease, authors assert. Publicity concerning risk of breast cancer probably helped increase the percentage of women over age 50 getting mammograms from 25 percent in 1987 to 60 percent in 1994.

Sources:

Lloyd-Jones, D. M. et al., "Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease," The Lancet, Volume 353, Number 9147, Jan. 9, 1999, pages 89-92.
Reuters Health Information Services, Inc., "Heart disease risks calculated," Jan. 8, 1999. (View Original Article)